Kids Fighting in the Park

When German Chancellor Friedrich Merz came to Washington on June 5 for his long-awaited meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, it was unclear what he would encounter.

Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy devolved into a shouting match; his audience with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa involved unfounded claims about white genocide. Conversely, Trump’s meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer ended in praise for their good relationship, similar to Trump’s cordial round of golf with Finnish President Alexander Stubb.

On paper, there are some similarities between Trump and Merz: long careers in the private sector, a tendency to let financial markets drive domestic policy; a desire to crack down on unauthorized immigration and asylum seekers; and a difficult relationship with former-chancellor Angela Merkel. However, Trump’s irritation over Merz’s perceived support for Joe Biden before Biden’s withdrawal in the 2024 election, and claims of German censorship over the potential banning of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) political party, meant that the meeting’s tenor would be uncertain until the first handshake.

Merz had three major items on his agenda: trade and tariffs, NATO and defense spending, and the war in Ukraine. Despite tariffs dominating headlines on both sides of the Atlantic, Merz was most concerned with affirming American support for Ukraine, as the war continues to escalate and U.S.-led negotiations have yet to broker a peace deal. Before launching into the political, Merz opened with the personal, presenting Trump with a copy of the birth certificate of his grandfather, Friedrich Trump, in a gold frame. Trump seemed genuinely pleased by the gift, claiming that he would hang it in a “place of honor.” The gesture set the tone for the 42-minute meeting, with Trump congratulating Merz on his victory and claiming that part of Trump’s own electoral mandate is to ensure good relations with Germany.

Merz’s opening remarks were brief as he underscored the common bond and shared history of the two countries. Taking a lesson from Zelenskyy’s visit in which Vice President J.D. Vance and Trump berated the Ukrainian leader for being ungrateful for U.S. support, Merz emphasized how much the Germans owe the Americans, something he repeated through the meeting. From there, the world leaders turned to questions from journalists, most of whom ignored Merz in favor of asking Trump about his latest travel ban, trade relations with China, his phone call with Russian president Vladimir Putin, and a perennial favorite—the autopen. When Merz was given the opportunity to speak, including once in German, he highlighted what he said was a shared commitment to ending the war in Ukraine, expressed his desire for deeper relations between the U.S. and Germany, and diplomatically sidestepped both of Trump’s comments about his country’s Nazi past.

For Merz, the greatest advantage was not who was in the room, but who wasn’t. At every opportunity, Trump took digs at Merkel, openly bashed Biden, and went on a meandering diatribe about Elon Musk. By focusing on the past, Trump appeared less dialed into the matters at present, which meant so long as Merz did not say anything to set Trump off, Merz appeared as a pleasant alternative. Therefore, if the goal was to avoid conflict, the meeting was a success for the Chancellor.

Merz is by no means an eloquent statesman, having committed his share of gaffes over the years. But when it came to Trump, Merz played his part well. It was a sign of strength to come without a translator, which led Trump to praise Merz’s English and allowed for a more personal interaction. It also set him apart from Angela Merkel, who almost never traveled without an interpreter. Another stroke of luck for Merz was the silence of Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, both extremely vocal critics of perceived attacks on free speech in Germany who have come out in support of the AfD. It is possible that they were told not to raise the thorny issue, which would indicate a vested interest from the Americans for positive engagement.

However, for all of the compliment-trading, Merz did not walk away with any guarantees from Trump on Ukraine, defense, or tariffs. Trump, while lamenting the death and devastation that the Russia-Ukraine war has wrought, seems in no hurry to force an end. His redline for imposing sanctions on Russia is not something he is willing to share publicly, but likening Ukraine and Russia to children on the playground does not demonstrate urgency for a resolution. Supposedly, trade was the main topic of the private lunch that followed the public meeting. Any fruits of that labor will be seen in the next few weeks, before the July 9 trade deal deadline. The only concrete assurance Merz got from Trump was that U.S. troops will remain in Germany. Even then, instead of painting the decision as a commitment to transatlantic defense, Trump highlighted how much money American soldiers spend in Germany.

Merz seemed confident that he has laid the foundation for amicable cooperation with Trump; indeed, in one day, he seemed to have garnered more goodwill than Angela Merkel had in four years. It is clear that Merz is playing the long game, and is hopeful that his self-professed ability to speak to Trump on a personal level will make him an ambassador of sorts to advance European positions on trade and defense. The success of that strategy depends on two factors: if Trump is interested in hearing the European position, and if Germany and the EU remain aligned without any “German votes” advancing domestic priorities over member state cohesion.

A third, and perhaps most important factor, is whether or not Merz has time to play the long game at all. War in Ukraine is escalating, conflict looms in South Asia, and tensions in the Middle East have reached a historic high, to say nothing of democratic backsliding on both sides of the Atlantic. It is possible that Merz’s time may be better spent in Brussels creating a strong European consensus to mediate conflict, rather than in Washington waiting for Trump to decide it is time to break up the kids in the park.

Print