Roadblocks at Home, Full Speed Abroad

On the morning of May 6, Friedrich Merz prepared for the formality of being elected Germany’s 11th postwar chancellor.

His center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), along with its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), won February’s snap election, thereby making the corporate lawyer and hobby pilot the de facto choice to lead the next government. This decision was driven by pragmatism, rather than personality. An April public opinion survey revealed that only 21% of voters found Merz “trustworthy”, and a month earlier he was the preferred chancellor candidate for just 9% of women aged 18-29.

Merz, however, represented Germany’s best chance at much-needed stability given a tumultuous domestic and international political climate. At home, the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) performed poorly in the election while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) scored a strong second-place finish. After ruling out the far-right, the only viable coalition was a return to the middle of CDU/CSU and SPD, albeit a more fragile union than in years past with just 45% of the collective vote. Abroad, threats from the ongoing war in Ukraine and retreating U.S. engagement in Europe demand clear and immediate action. Therefore, conventional wisdom dictated that just as voters made a practical, if not enthusiastic, choice, so too would their elected representatives by officially naming Merz chancellor in a required parliamentary vote.

For that to happen, the conservative leader needed 316 votes from the 630 members of Germany’s 21st Bundestag. The CDU/CSU and SPD majority holds 328 seats. Outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz received 395 votes in 2021, easily surpassing the 369 ayes then needed. And despite some discontent among fiscal hawks in Merz’s party over his about-face on passing a constitutional amendment reforming Germany’s debt brake after vowing not to do so, it was widely assumed that he would get the votes now and grief later.

Instead, for the first time in the Federal Republic’s history, following a fair election and successful coalition negotiation process, the designated chancellor candidate failed to get the requisite votes. Merz secured just 310 ballots. Six hours later, when the Bundestag voted again, he made it across the post with 325 votes. All members of the three governing factions claimed to have supported Merz in the first round, but the secret ballot means that the dissenters are unlikely ever to be revealed. Even if the no-votes were made public, it would only serve to further damage the coalition’s credibility.

Merz chose to downplay the discord in his first official interview as chancellor, claiming that it is “normal that not all will agree”, and that the quick consensus reached in the second vote is actually a sign of a “stable, parliamentary democracy”. His critics dissented. AfD leader Alice Weidel noted the “weak foundation the small coalition of CDU and voter-spurned SPD is built on”. Green Party Co-Chair Franziska Brantner pondered the objective of such public dissent, claiming that it went beyond weakening the new government and damaged trust in German democracy.

Regardless of personal interpretation, the failed vote was not the show of strength that Merz hoped to project as he boarded a plane early the next day. His first to stop was to French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris, followed within hours by a meeting with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Warsaw. That Merz’s first foreign visits were to the other two points of the Weimar Triangle was a conscious decision meant to symbolize Germany’s commitment to intra-European cooperation. Equally symbolic is the still-undetermined date for Merz’s first meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, although the two leaders have committed to get together no later than June, at NATO’s summit in The Hague.

In Paris, Merz’s rocky start began to fade. In contrast to the occasionally frosty rapport between Scholz and Macron, the “deep personal bond” shared by the new chancellor and his French counterpart was on full display as the EU’s two largest powers aligned on support for Ukraine, European rearmament, and boosting private-sector competitiveness. Although still at odds over an EU-Mercosur trade deal (with Germany in favor and France on the fence), both leaders nevertheless acknowledged the need for expanded export markets amid Trump’s global tariffs.

In Poland, the reception was less welcoming. Germany’s decision to extend strict border controls to limit the crossing of unauthorized migrants has created tensions with its eastern neighbor. Identification verification checks have caused multi-hour delays on the German-Polish border, frustrating those who live in one country and work in the other. Merz, in a joint press conference with his Polish host, doubled down on the decision and announced Germany’s joining of an initiative to tighten EU migration policies. Tusk encouraged his guest to instead contribute to a more secure European continent by increasing defense spending, a perennial sticking point.

Given German constraints at home and abroad, the Merz government had to send a message of strength and stability from its first day in power. But the first failed chancellor vote instead showed deep cracks in the centrist government’s foundation. This inauspicious start will be difficult to overcome, and may be a sign of further dissent to come. But that will not stop the pressure on Berlin to show leadership on a fractured world stage.

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