When Publics Portend Policy

This article originally appeared in In Depth, Volume 23 Issue 1, published by the Cyprus Center for European and International Affairs.

The Munich Security Conference (MSC) report is an annual document meant to set the tone for three days of discussions among some of the world’s preeminent geostrategic policymakers. The blunt, two-word title of the 2026 edition, “Under Destruction”, makes clear an uncomfortable truth plaguing the transatlantic relationship in recent years: Policy differences between the United States and Europe have made once unshakable allies increasingly incompatible. As the United States both seeks to withdraw from and unilaterally control the international order, Europeans have begun viewing the country as less of an ally and more of a liability, particularly for collective security.

Despite assurances by Secretary of State Marco Rubio that the U.S. will not abandon Europe, the United States is clearly pulling back from the Continent in several key areas. Recent transatlantic breakdowns include the U.S. decision to turn over two key NATO commands to the Europeans and Washington’s diminishing commitment to the war in Ukraine. Perhaps the most significant breach of trust, however, stems from U.S. President Donald Trump’s aspirations to annex Greenland, a self-governing territory within the Kingdom of Denmark, a NATO ally. Trump walked back recent comments during January’s World Economic Forum in Davos, but the impact on European leaders and publics alike will be lasting.

The forthcoming publication of a 2025 Bertelsmann Stiftung and Bertelsmann Foundation survey on transatlantic partner reliability will show that 70% of Europeans believe it is time for the EU to “go its own way”. This is a dramatic increase from 2017 when, during the first Trump administration, just a quarter of respondents advocated for a break with the United States. Public sentiment corresponds to increased calls for European strategic autonomy from at the governing level, with French President Emmanuel Macron leading the charge. This call to action is echoed by the 71% of respondents who believe the EU should play a more active role in world affairs.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz was initially more skeptical of shifting away from Washington for security and economic reasons, but illusory visions of continuing historical reliance on the Americans were shattered when he declared the end of the “Pax Americana” in a December 2025 speech. Merz doubled down at Munich, asserting that the U.S. claim to leadership has passed, and the postwar international order “no longer exists”.

The Bertelsmann survey also shows that a majority of respondents in Europe and the United States believe that NATO membership protects their countries against “threats to peace”. Perhaps surprisingly, more Americans (72%) than Europeans (64%) support this view. However, Europeans are increasingly unconvinced that the United States is the alliance cornerstone. A February 2026 survey by POLITICO revealed that far fewer British, French and German respondents believe that their country’s relationship with Washington protects them from enemies, compared to 2025 data. In all three countries, confidence that the partnership provides security fell by double-digit percentages in the past year. Furthermore, just 18% of Germans and 20% of French believe the United States. is a reliable ally, with 50% and 44% respectively outright disagreeing.

Despite the clear lack of trust, the Bertelsmann survey finds that a plurality of Europeans still identifies the United States as their most valuable ally. Americans feel the same way about Europe. But it is hard to believe that this trend will continue, particularly as the Greenland affair has prompted many European leaders to reexamine all dependencies on the United States, from energy to technology to defense. Europe will need to rely on new partners to safeguard itself, and recent EU trade agreements with Canada, India and Mercosur countries indicate that the shift is already underway. If these so-called middle powers can band together, as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called for in his landmark speech at Davos, they will be able to negotiate with global hegemons from a position of collective strength.

For all the pessimism about the Euro-Atlantic alliance, neither European leaders nor their publics are calling for a complete pivot away from Washington. Many areas for cooperation remain, including on critical minerals, space policy and countering China. Not to mention that completely cutting off the U.S. would be nearly impossible; the U.S. provides about 60% of the EU’s liquified natural gas needs, an arguably irreplaceable energy lifeline, especially as sanctions on Russia remain in place. But the days of transatlantic tranquility are over.

Ultimately, for Europe to truly exercise strategic autonomy, it needs to act fast and with one voice. It does neither well, but there is hope. The market impact of the EU’s threat to deploy its Anti-Coercion Instrument in response to Trump’s threats to annex Greenland is seen as a key reason for his backing down. Chancellor Merz has implored Europe to learn to speak the language of power to survive among global giants, including the United States The learning curve may be steep, but the moment has never been more right.

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